Re: Netscape the Big Win

[Jon Lasser <jlasser@rwd.goucher.edu>]

On Thu, 20 Jul 1995, Timothy C. May wrote:
> There were reasons why some folks like to do as much work as they could in
> an integrated environment like Emacs, regardless of the underlying OS
> flavor. Many folk still do, and they read News, send mail, etc., all from
> within Emacs.
> 
> Same idea with Netscape...albeit with a different focus. And my guess,
> based on lots of indications, is that about a thousand times as many people
> will soon be doing this with Netscape as with Emacs, or elm, or pine, etc.
>
> Ray's comments about OpenDoc, HotJava, and other object-oriented tools fit
> this picture, I think.

Perhaps.  I went to a computer store the other day, and saw almost two 
dozen different packages for e-Space access, each with different 
software... 2 or 3 with netscape, 2 or 3 with mosaic, everything else 
just custom packages, mostly.

And from what I've heard about HotJava (not seen it yet, can't comment 
strongly) there needs another jump in PC power before it would be useful 
at the home level.  Part of why we were stuck with DOS for so long is 
that it was what got the job done when the revolution happened.  For that 
reason, I agree that HTML/Integrated browser solutions are what we're 
looking at, and at the same time don't have strong hopes for HotJava, 
though I would like to see it succeed.

> I am sorry that some folks heavily committed to the Linux route, or to
> Emacs, or to GNU/FSF, or to other approaches feel that their work is
> technically superior and deserves to be as popular as Netscape and simiar
> approaches, but reality is reality.

All dogmas are ultimately Bad Things.  But dogma gets stuff done in the 
short run.  NetScape deserves to be popular; they followed the truth that 
most PC users like "pretty" better.  And they made the best "pretty" 
software.

> (And I could be wrong on the way things will unfold. All I'm saying is that
> technology is a moving target, that plans have to change, and that ease of
> use will likely win out over technical sophistication. Folks who think the
> stronger technology will inevitably win should pick up a copy of a
> 15-year-old book called "The Soul of a New Machine," by Tracy Kidder.)

Agreed.  It's still too early to tell.  This is like 100AD and we're 
trying to predict the Catholic Church of the twentieth century, trying to 
figure out fifteen years down our road.   I really believe that's how 
fast we're moving right now, and we have to hit as many targets as we can.

Jon
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Jon Lasser                <jlasser@rwd.goucher.edu>            (410) 494-3253 
          Visit my home page at http://www.goucher.edu/~jlasser/
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