Re: The "Future" Fallacy

["Perry E. Metzger" <perry@piermont.com>]

Duncan's comment was quite obvious. Any child old enough to use a
computer can already transmit coded messages that no government can
find easy to decipher. The "Future Fallacy" is the prediction of
things in the past.

Timothy C. May writes:
> >From: Duncan Frissell
> >Bill Gates (like Mister Newt before him) committed what I call the Future
> >Fallacy in "The Road Ahead."  Page 106.
> >
> >"Soon any child old enough to use a computer will be able to transmit coded
> >messages that no government on earth will find easy to decipher."
> >...................................................
> >
> >Billg is an optimist.
> >What's wrong with this picture, Duncan?
> 
> I found nothing wrong or incorrect with the quote Duncan attributed to Bill
> Gates (I haven't read Gates' book).
> 
> I couldn't understand Duncan's koan, shrugged, and moved on.