Re: A little skepticism over $60 billion

[futplex@pseudonym.com (Futplex)]

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SF Examiner writes:
# NEW YORK U.S. companies will lose as much as 30 percent of the $200  
# billion in U.S. computer system sales expected 

tallpaul writes:
> Now we know that U.S. companies will lose something off the government's
> anti-export policies. But will we really see 30% of sales lost by
> purchasing agents saying "Gee, we'd like to buy IBM mainframe's and Dell
> micros and Windows and unix but we won't because there is no secure
> encryption program in the world that will run on the IBM or U.S. micros or
> under the U.S. OS's"? 
>  
> Let's fight the export laws over exporting quality crypto without accepting
> advertising hype from any industry. 

First of all, Bill S. was suggesting that the $60B figure is too low 
to be convincing to certain crucial people. Arguing that the figure should 
probably be even lower can only lend weight to that argument.

Secondly, as I'm sure you'll agree, mass media reports and advertising can
sway public opinion. IMHO cypherpunks should not hesitate to use those tools
to further our cause. Putting a specific number, almost any number, on the
anticipated opportunity cost drives the point home with a lot of people. Now
most reasonable people know (I think) that projections are based on 
assumptions that turn out to be partially wrong, for various reasons. But
they still form useful premises for debate. (I have the current U.S. federal 
budget battle in the back of my mind here.)

Futplex <futplex@pseudonym.com>  (in a verbose mood, inexplicably)

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