Betting on the Unibells

[tcmay@got.net (Timothy C. May)]

At 4:07 PM 4/21/96, Sandy Sandfort wrote:

>To which Black Unicorn responded:
>
>> I have US$ 50,000 that says it didn't.  Care to take me up on it?
>
>Though I think the wager offered way out of line, I wish that
>this mechanism for handling disputes were used more often on the
>Cypherpunk list.  It's easy for folks to shoot their mouths off
>when they can do so at virtually zero cost.  The results are
>endless flame wars with only rare resolution.  When money is at
>stake, there is an incentive to be more temperant in ones claims.

I believe Sandy was on the Extropians list at the same time I was (and
maybe after I left), and must recall that this was tried. The Extropians
tried several of these "market-based dispute resolution" schemes, including
wagers on debates.

In my view, all failed. Wagers and bets consumed far more list time to
discuss, argue about, and (sometimes) resolve than the experiment was
worth. Basically, not too surprising, as the actual stakes were quite low
and the real-world consequences small. "Wiggle room" was always argued for,
and "mediators" or "arbitrators" to decide the winner were hard to find for
many of the bets.

And many of the bets were poorly-formulated, at least in terms of having a
neutral third party decide the outcome.

(I don't doubt that better formulations are possible....it just requires a
lot of work, and the stakes need to be worthwhile. Mediators have to get a
big enough cut of the action to make it worthwhile for them to get
involved. It takes motivation and effort to get inolved, and I can't see
anyone with an IQ over 120--a slacker on this list--wanting to get involved
in the "yadda-yadda-yadda" debate between the Unibells.)

>I would be interested to see if Jim Bell and Black Unicorn could
>engage in a "friendly" wager on the question in point for the
>nominal sum of, say, US$100.  Perhaps they can cooperate to frame
>their dispute in unambiguous terms, mutually agree upon an escrow
>agent and pick a referee or other resolution mechanism to decide
>their "case."  Wouldn't that be something?
>
>By the way, gentlemen, I'm not kidding.  Everyone on this list
>could use a respite from all the "yes-it-is-no-it's-not" posts
>among various combatants engaged in "how-many-angels..." spats.


I find it much easier to just let Jim Bell and Black Unicorn rant at each
other. I delete their rants and insults. I figure if this keeps them
occupied for hours every night, to each their own.

--Tim May

(Speaking of the Unibells...did you hear about the bomber who blows up his
victims and then eats the pieces? The Unadahmer.)

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