India, Productivity, and Tropical Climes

[tcmay@got.net (Timothy C. May)]

It's human nature, and the nature of information theory (at least our
version), to focus on points of disagreement. "I agree" messages are
frowned upon (but so, it seems to me, would "I disgree" messages....but
most who disagree choose to comment on specific points, while most who
agree seem to agree on the overall theme.

In any case, I agree with Arun's points, and I am pleased--in a
transnationalist sense--that an Indian makes these points.


At 4:17 AM 8/11/96, Arun Mehta wrote:
>At 02:05 10/08/96 -0700, Timothy C. May wrote:

>>Where do I begin? First, what does "taking jobs away from us" mean? That we
>>own these jobs? And who is "us"?
>
>Well said. While I didn't see the CBS program , I bet the
>scaremongerers did not point out that programmers don't just
>produce software, they are major consumers as well. The growth of
>the software industry in other countries therefore means business
>for US industry, which produces most of the compilers and other
>utilities that programmers everywhere use. This clearly helps
>programmers in the US.

As others have noted, _all_ productive output helps _all_. That is,
productivity around the world is a "common good." As Milton Friedman points
out, what should our response be if the Koreans want to sell us
supertankers at $1 each? Buy as many as we can.

(Though this sounds absurd, my old company's ability to crank out
multimillion transistor chips running at 200 MHz must seem similar to many
countries. What should Germany's or India's response to 200 MHz Pentia
selling for $200 be? Buy all they can and integrate them into systems.)

>In earlier generations of computing, monopolistic organizations
>such as IBM and DEC charged huge sums for information. One of the
>reasons that IBM was thrown out of India in the mid seventies was
>their practice of shipping only outdated computers from the US to
>India. Indian programmers were at a disadvantage, and clearly

This I tend to disagree with. I recall that India had some laws in the
1970s which required companies to dislose trade secrets to them. As a
result, IBM chose not to stay in India. I recall that Coca-Cola also
refused to turn over the formula for Coke, but this may've been urban
legend. The IBM case is pretty well-documented. IBM would've sold the
latest and greatest technology to India if: a) it was profitable to them,
b) if India could've paid for a 370/90 or whatever in 1975, c) if COCOM
regulations would have allowed such a sale (doubtful, given the Ghandi
dynasty's cozying up to the Sovs in the 70s.

I don't think shipment of "old technology" to India was at all on IBM's
list of concerns, certainly not back then.


>Further, as economists such as Paul Krugman point out, developing
>countries lack the means for sustained growth ("Which Asian
>Model?", Newsweek, November 20, 1995). Those economies that have
>shown dramatic growth, such as the East Asian, have relied
>essentially on low-cost inputs, rather than on their efficient
>utilization. Professor Alwyn Young of Boston has in fact come to
>the surprising conclusion that Singapore's total factor
>productivity (which measures such efficiency) is so poor as to be
>comparable to that of the Soviet Union. He points out that "at
>just the time that everybody was ranting about how magnificent
>Japan was, it ceased to catch up."

A good friend of mine was stationed in Japan for Intel for 9 years. He
confirms that the Japanese are really struggling. (I have a lot of
independent evidence for this, but will not go into it here.)

The Japanese bought a theory that industrial policy was best-determined by
MITI, their central-planning organization. They gambled on RAMs and on a
vague dream of "Fifth Generation" systems, but they missed workstations,
PCs, and the Web. (And a bunch of other things that American companies have
dominated in.)

(responding to comments from someone else)

>I'd argue the opposite: I see no reason why companies such as
>Netscape have to put up with such draconian US laws as ITAR: why
>don't they simply develop their software overseas? If they made a
>highly publicised move, that might do wonders to change the
>opinions of US Congresspersons voting on ITAR-related legislation.

This is not so much of a mystery. The vagueness of the ITARs and the powers
of the American State are such that Netscape, for example, would probably
be in violation of the ITARs if it subcontracted-out the security features
of Navigator to a non-U.S. company. Think "hooks." Think "exporting
knowledge."

I agree that Netscape would galvanize the debate by announcing, say, that
furhter development of Navigator would take place in Ireland or Slovenia or
India. But I doubt it would accomplish much....the U.S would be on the horn
immediately to their lap dogs in Ireland, Slovenia, and Ireland, warning
them of the consequences, and would likely find multiple ways to pressure
Jim Clarke and Netscape.

(Any of the three Weinstein brothers are welcome to explain why Netscape
would not yield to such pressures. But if any of them comment, ask them why
Netscape has not elected to solve this problem--which according to reports
is costing them sales--by doing precisely this. Are they stupic, or what?)

>My prediction is that with the blessings of the Internet, the
>next generation of multiracial programmers, even those that were
>born in the USA, will be more likely to be found on the beaches
>of tropical islands than in the fog of San Francisco. When you
>can work in the shade of a palm tree, even if you should earn
>less, it's worth it :-)

As attractive as this sounds, historically this has not happened. And as
many will tell you, the climate of the Bay Area in particular and
California in general is extremely benign and delightful. The average
winter temperature is only about 10C cooler than summer temperatures.
Evenings are not balmy, but neither are they oppressively hot.

Interestingly, and not really related to CP themes, the fact is that is
that most technological developments have come out of cooler climes. Not a
lot of stuff from tropical and island climes. Maybe they realize life is
too good eating roast pig at the beach luau, maybe they are too lethargic
from the heat, maybe tropical diseases and mosquitos have taken their toll,
maybe....

I know an awful lot of folks who could easily affort to move to almost
anywhere in the world, and yet they stay in California. (I also know folks
moving to even cooler climes, in the U.S., especially less-crowded areas.)

--Tim May



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