Re: Why is cryptoanarchy irreversible?

[ph@netcom.com (Peter Hendrickson)]

At 6:56 PM 11/7/1996, Andrew Loewenstern wrote:
> ...<several excellent points>...

> People will outright demand strong crypto.

> This is already happening.  Despite intense pressure from TLA's for GAK,
> savvy businesses are demanding strong crypto (the idea that no crypto at all
> will be used is utterly ridiculous, it will either be strong or GAKed but
> there will be crypto).  Hardly anyone is bowing to the pressure.  It will
>take
> a mandate from congress to get people to actually use GAK, and the more
> businesses and congresscritters begin understand the benefits of strong
>crypto
> to the bottom line, the less likely such a mandate would happen.

This implies that there is a dramatic political opportunity for those
who have not yet taken a strong stand on the issue, young congresspeople
please note.

Federal interference has probably delayed the onset of large scale net
commerce by at least a year.  The Zimmermann case alone, I suspect, has had
a dramatic chilling effect on the development of good security technologies.

It is interesting to speculate on the career consequences for those who
are currently on the wrong side of the fence.  People like Jim Exon
will, at most, find their way into an embarrassing footnote in the
history books.

What about Albert Gore?  Since the '92 election his political stock
has fallen dramatically amongst people I know.  Before his "Information
Highway" activities, a few people were suspicious of his wife's
inclinations towards censorship, but he was not generally hated.  A lot
can happen in four years.  My guess is that the general public and
even the reporters ;-) will have caught on to the issues surrounding
strong crypto by the next election which will not be good for Gore's
naked ambition.

It's also interesting to wonder what will happen to certain institutions
which have not been very well behaved.  Certainly the ATF is not well
loved.  That is not lucky for long range funding.

I suspect the NSA will be able to salvage their reputation by sticking
the blame on the Clinton administration and anybody else who is handy.
They seem to be playing both sides of the fence right now.  There is
a tremendous institutional opportunity for the NSA as the demand for
secure systems is growing exponentially and they probably know it.

Peter Hendrickson
ph@netcom.com