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Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
February 11, 1998
Russia Threatens to Arm Baghdad
But will Saddam Remain in Power?
According to a report on Tuesday in the online edition of the Egyptian
newspaper Al-sha'b, the Russian government has warned Washington that
Russia will supply arms and humanitarian aid to Iraq if the United States
chooses to abandon diplomatic efforts and attacks Iraq. Al-Sha'b reported
that Baghdad requested 20 billion dollars in urgent military and
humanitarian aid from Russia. Baghdad, which already owes Russia 80
billion dollars, hopes to be able to pay off its debt once sanctions are
lifted. Al-Sha'b went on to report that Washington has monitored
heightened states of alert and increased military preparedness throughout
the Middle East, and has warned neighboring Arab states against providing
Iraq with military support.
If the Egyptian report is factual, then Russia has just moved even closer
to confrontation with the United States. Its previous threats of world war
are clearly not credible. Sending aid to Iraq is, on the other hand, quite
credible and therefore is in many ways more dangerous. The question is,
will Hussein be there after the U.S. attack to receive the arms?
We have noticed a curious juxtaposition of official U.S. statements on the
crisis in Iraq with the emerging balance of U.S. forces in the region,
suggesting that Washington may be expecting an Iraqi coup d'etat. U.S.
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright testified before the Senate on
Tuesday that, in the event U.S. air strikes contributed to toppling Saddam
Hussein, "it would create a situation which, for a time, would require the
presence of troops." The United States has accelerated its deployment of
ground troops to the region. Three thousand troops from Ft. Stewart are
being deployed to reinforce the 1,500 U.S. ground troops already in Kuwait.
The USS Tarawa and the USS Guam, amphibious assault ships each carrying a
2,000-man Marine Expeditionary Unit, are headed for the Persian Gulf.
Other U.S. ground forces in the region include 6,000 soldiers at the Prince
Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia and 10,000 soldiers engaged in military
exercises in Egypt.
Additionally, the list of potential U.S. targets has grown from suspected
chemical and biological agent sites to include command and control
installations, the Iraqi air force, and the Republican Guard. This
suggests a decapitation strike, aimed at disrupting Hussein's capability to
coordinate a defense of his hold on power.
Iraqi opposition forces also appear to be preparing for an altered post-air
strike environment. The rival Kurdish Democratic Party and Patriotic Union
of Kurdestan are planning a meeting on February 12 to settle outstanding
differences and stabilize their cease-fire. Iraqi Kurdestan's Conservative
Party public relations officer, Aram Muhammad Sa'id, declared in an
interview on Monday with the Iranian News Agency that Turkey's latest entry
into northern Iraq had the "green light" from the United States, and was
part of a U.S. plan to use air strikes to topple Hussein and dismember
Iraq. Finally, the Iraqi National Congress has reported that Baath Party
and military officials have begun evacuating southern Iraq, lest an
uprising follow U.S. air strikes.
Many in the U.S. Congress have asserted the need for an "end game" that
removes Saddam Hussein from power, but thus far the U.S. has been unable to
foment or coordinate an overthrow of Hussein. If it is to be successful,
we will not know for certain about a coup plot's existence until it is
underway. But circumstances do hint that something may be in the works.
Baghdad has evidently noticed this, as Iraqi Foreign Minister Saeed al-
Sahhaf asserted on Tuesday that the U.S. would fail to topple the Iraqi
regime, since Hussein had the support of the Iraqi people.
The question is this: is there a real possibility of a coup in Baghdad or
is this part of U.S. psychological warfare against Iraq? In a way, the
possibility of a coup is more reasonable an explanation for U.S. behavior
than the idea that the U.S. is going to mount an air campaign against
chemical and biological weapons. What is not clear is whether a coup has a
real chance or whether this is just wishful thinking on the part of the
United States. And it is not clear what Russia would do if the coup turned
into a protracted internal struggle.
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