'Martial law' rushed for Y2K chaos

["Jean-Francois Avon" <jf_avon@citenet.net>]

LOCAL 
 Saturday 12 December 1998 

'Martial law' rushed for Y2K chaos Report warns government to be ready to 
invoke federal Emergencies Act

 By David Pugliese           The Ottawa Citizen

  The federal government should consider invoking the Emergencies Act, the 
successor to the War Measures Act, if the millennium bug causes widespread 
chaos, according to newly obtained government documents.  The report, by the 
Year 2000 contingency planning group of Emergency Preparedness Canada, calls 
for orders and regulations for the Emergencies Act to be ready by the end of 
March.  "In the worst case, we should consider the Emergencies Act a potential 
source of special powers," urge documents prepared by government in July and 
August and obtained by the Citizen under the Access to Information Act.  
"Among the activities that must be done to meet the problems resulting from 
Y2000 failures is development of relevant emergency orders and regulations 
required for the invocation of emergency provisions under the Emergencies 
Act."  Federal departments are to identify what emergency orders would be 
needed in their areas of responsibility to deal with a countrywide disaster 
caused by the millennium bug. Those orders and regulations should have been in 
place in 1988 -- when the Emergencies Act was brought in to replace the War 
Measures Act -- but federal departments failed to develop them. While the lack 
of emergency orders and regulations among federal departments would not have 
prevented the Emergencies Act from being invoked, it would have meant that any 
federal response to a large-scale crisis would not have run smoothly.  Defence 
Minister Art Eggleton, who is in charge of Emergency Preparedness Canada, will 
also be issued with a step-by-step guidebook on actions to be taken in a 
"major or catastrophic emergency" caused by the millennium bug, according to 
the report.  That book will include all the documents needed and the names of 
provincial officials who should be consulted before the federal government 
invokes the Emergencies Act.  The War Measures Act was last invoked by Prime 
Minister Pierre Trudeau on Oct. 16, 1970, to deal with the FLQ terrorist 
threat -- the first and only peacetime implementation of such sweeping powers.  
The Front de Liberation du Quebec had kidnapped British diplomat James Cross, 
who was later released, and Liberal cabinet minister Pierre Laporte, who was 
slain. During the crisis, Canadian troops were ordered to protect public 
figures, and 497 possible suspects were arbitrarily rounded up and arrested in 
an attempt to break the FLQ cell structure.  Defence spokesman Maj. John 
Blakeley said the process now being put in place is simply part of prudent 
planning to deal with the millennium bug and does not automatically mean the 
Emergencies Act will be enacted.  "The question of whether it will be required 
or not is one that will have to be determined at the time," Maj. Blakeley 
said. "Basically, this is saying, 'If it gets to that stage, is everything 
ready?' "  Maj. Blakeley said all scenarios have to be considered, including 
the most unlikely one: widespread major problems caused by the millennium bug. 
He added that the Defence department is confident it will be ready to handle 
any emergencies associated with the computer glitch.  But the Auditor General 
has continually warned that the federal government is lacking in its emergency 
response capabilities. Among the criticisms over the years:  - In 1997, the 
Auditor General voiced concern that not enough was being done to deal with an 
emergency caused by a major oil or chemical spill;  - In 1992, the Auditor 
General repeated warnings that the government had still not created an 
emergency program to deal with an earthquake. The Auditor General's office 
says those plans are still undeveloped.  - In 1989, the Auditor General 
pointed out that the emergency orders and measures needed by federal 
departments for the Emergencies Act had not been mapped out. Nine years later, 
that remains the case.  Jim Hanson, a defence analyst and retired Canadian 
Army brigadier general, said the Emergencies Act contains the same sweeping 
powers to deal with unrest and civil emergencies. But he said it is likely 
such measures are intended more to give powers to civilian agencies, such as 
police forces, in case there are problems from the millennium bug.  "It 
wouldn't take much under the existing National Defence Act or the 'aid to 
civil powers' provisions to put military personnel on the streets."  Some 
computer analysts believe the millennium bug, also known as the Year 2000 or 
Y2K problem, will cause only minor disruptions. But others predict it will 
trigger widespread disruptions in computers that control everything from hydro 
and financial systems to air-traffic control.  The problem centres on the fact 
that the internal counters of computers will read the year 2000 simply as 00. 
That could cause them to crash as they misread the 00 for the year 1900.  
Several months ago the Canadian Forces were told to prepare for the biggest 
peacetime deployment of troops ever in case computer failures caused by the 
Year 2000 problem disrupted key services. The plan, dubbed Operation Abacus, 
also involves the development of rules governing the use of force by soldiers 
in case they are called upon to assist police in dealing with emergency 
incidents.  The reports obtained by the Citizen predict the first wave of 
computer failures could hit Canada on Sept. 9, 1999, because systems might 
have problems handling that date sequence, which is 9-9-99. The Defence 
department will activate a national co-ordination centre to handle emergency 
response to the millennium bug the day before that date, according to the 
documents.  As part of its preparations, the national co-ordination centre 
will also run several exercises to test military readiness. In April, federal 
and provincial agencies in Quebec and Ontario will conduct a three-day 
training scenario involving a nuclear emergency -- a major test and evaluation 
of how the federal government and provinces can respond to a large-scale 
emergency that might result from the millennium bug, according to the Access 
documents.  In the reports, military officials also raise concern that their 
ability to help out if the millennium bug causes widespread problems relies 
heavily on Canada's electrical, transportation, food and water and sewage 
systems having their own Year 2000 problems under control: "The ability of the 
(Canadian Forces) to provide civil assistance is highly dependent on the state 
of preparedness of these infrastructure items since the CF, like everyone 
else, is highly dependent on smooth delivery of these supplies and services," 
the documents state. "Without aggressive action in these industrial and 
service sectors, the (Canadian Forces) may not be able to make a significant 
impact across the nation as a force of last resort."  Military officials point 
out that more than 16,000 troops were needed to deal with the effects of the 
ice storm that hit Ontario and Quebec this year. But the millennium bug, the 
report states, "has the potential of creating a demand orders of magnitude 
greater than this, which are well beyond the CF's capability to respond."  
Defence officials called for "aggressive and preventive actions" now to reduce 
the Year 2000 risk to a more manageable level.  The military will have about 
32,000 of its personnel dedicated to Operation Abacus, with thousands more 
available if needed.  In November, the Commons Public Accounts committee 
questioned whether the Canadian Forces would be able to deal with countrywide 
problems that might be caused by the millennium bug.  But several weeks later, 
a report by Auditor General Denis Desautels found that the critical systems 
the Defence department needs should computer foul-ups create civil chaos are 
largely ready. These included systems that support the movement of troops and 
supplies and handling of communications.
 
Copyright 1998 Ottawa Citizen