Re: Digital Telephony bill, August 1 draft (fwd)

[Arsen Ray Arachelian <rarachel@prism.poly.edu>]

---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Thu, 4 Aug 1994 21:17:35 -0400 (EDT)
From: Sal Denaro <sal@panix.com>
To: Arsen Ray Arachelian <rarachel@prism.poly.edu>
Subject: Re: Digital Telephony bill, August 1 draft (fwd)

>From panix!MathWorks.Com!europa.eng.gtefsd.com!library.ucla.edu!agate!headwall.Stanford.EDU!cindy.stanford.edu!user Thu Aug  4 21:03:35 1994
Path: panix!MathWorks.Com!europa.eng.gtefsd.com!library.ucla.edu!agate!headwall.Stanford.EDU!cindy.stanford.edu!user
From: rogo@forsythe.stanford.edu (Mark Rogowsky)
Newsgroups: comp.sys.intel,comp.sys.powerpc
Subject: Re: IBM Power-PC future

In article <issa.775452041@cwis>, issa@cwis.unomaha.edu (Issa El-Hazin) wrote:

>      * OS/2 and NT. 
>      Microsoft's Windows NT will probably become the OS of choice
>      for the IBM PPS's and the Intel PCI local-bus will be the only
>      bus offered with IBM's new machines. Now wasn't a main idea with 
>      the new architecture is to compete/get ride of the MS/Intel 
>      dominance so IBM/Apple can start making a good buck again! OS/2 
>      for the PowerPC (previously known as WorkPlace OS) keeps on getting 
>      delayed and when it's finally released, I don't think it will compete 
>      with Windows NT 3.5. Beside being a very robust OS, NT is also 
>      available for Intel, MIPS, DECs, and other workstations and its'
>      been out for a while.

Your chip-mania is lunacy... Let's try a new lens...

Q2,'95, PPC 604 in machines, chip costs around $400 at 100MHz.

Q4,'95  P6 in machines, chip costs around $1100 at 133MHz.
        
        PPC 604 matches P6 performance (or betters it) with
        133MHz and 150MHz versions. 100MHz version is $250.
        Developers routinely recompiled Win32 apps for PPC.
        
        PPC 620 shipping in quantity. Initial price, $999.

        AMD K5 variants and Cyrix M1 variants begin really annoying
        Intel by matching all P5 performance points with lower 
        prices. The ensuing price war begins chopping away something
        from Intel's gargantuan profits.

Q1,'96  P6 machines now available in quantity. Few willing to pay
        the high price. Really fast P5s keep those not looking for
        change quite happy. Some, looking for price/performance,
        begin thinking about PPC machines.

Q2,'96  PPC620 machines ship. Faster 604s, P5s, P6s, abound. Nothing
        can touch 620 in the PC marketplace. Machines expensive.
        PPC604 chip price now at about $150. P6 at about $750.

Q4,'96  Word of the PowerPC 800 series just swept Comdex (IBM and Moto
        did a big show on the new series). Systems should begin appearing
        in 12-18 months.

        Intel cloners becoming really annoying. IBM, making money selling
        PPC systems, also has figured out what Intel already knows: you
        can make more money selling whole logic boards to PC cloners rather
        than just chips. Using Cyrix technology, they are cutting deeper into
        the P5-class x86 business.

        Intel/HP briefing ignored. Who cares about a chip coming out in two
        years?

        Gateway and Dell merge but keep identities separate. 

        HP again considers buying Apple.

Q2,'97  Intel fights back with much cheaper P6s and much faster ones.
      
        First PPC 800 series silicon is becoming available.

Q4,'97  PPC running 800 SPECint.

Q2,'98  Intel/HP first silicon using VLIW technology. Compatible with
        existing x86 binaries. Intel encouraging ISVs to write to the
        "native mode" of the new chips, though.

That was fun....

IBM's PPCs will have preemption, threads, telephony, video, etc. (as soon
as they ship). Macs will have threads, telephony, video, etc. (as soon as
7.5 ships). I don't think lack of preemption will kill, or even severely
wound, Apple's efforts to keep -- and perhaps increase -- its market
share. Also, that PnP stuff and multimedia will still be better on Macs
(because they've always been plug and play and because QuickTime is really
going to win the race over Video for Windows -- call Bell Atlantic if you
disagree).

***
should have been posted to alt.prose :>

sal@panix.com                                              Yes, I use PGP. 
Salvatore Denaro                          
Live fast, Die young, Hack C++      My heart is broke/but I have some glue 
Sex, Drugs and Cryptography.           Help me inhale/and mend it with you