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Re: The "Future" Fallacy

On Wed, 6 Dec 1995, Timothy C. May wrote:

> At 7:24 AM 12/6/95, [email protected] wrote:
> >From: Duncan Frissell
> >
> >Bill Gates (like Mister Newt before him) committed what I call the Future
> >Fallacy in "The Road Ahead."  Page 106.
> >
> >"Soon any child old enough to use a computer will be able to transmit coded
> >messages that no government on earth will find easy to decipher."
> >...................................................
> >
> >
> >Billg is an optimist.
> >
> >What's wrong with this picture, Duncan?
> I found nothing wrong or incorrect with the quote Duncan attributed to Bill
> Gates (I haven't read Gates' book).
> I couldn't understand Duncan's koan, shrugged, and moved on.

I think Duncan was mad at the 'soon.'  Why not today?

> --Tim May
> Views here are not the views of my Internet Service Provider or Government.
> ---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:----
> Timothy C. May              | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money,
> [email protected]  408-728-0152 | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero
> Corralitos, CA              | knowledge, reputations, information markets,
> Higher Power: 2^756839      | black markets, collapse of governments.
> "National borders are just speed bumps on the information superhighway."

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