Re: Net Regulation

[Duncan Frissell <frissell@panix.com>]

To: cypherpunks@toad.com

C >Douglas Barnes (cman@illuminati.io.com) writes:

C >1) Let's say, just for instance, that all computer programmers in 
C >Europe and the US switch places, and become Permanent Tourists. Do you 
C >think that anyone would notice? 

Jobs that are ripe for virtual expatriation:

o software writing (obviously)
o all the rest of the software industry
o all other kinds of writing
o financial services
o law
o journalism
o entertainment (acting, vocals, production, VR, techs, distribution,
     sales -- the whole chain)
o telecommunications (almost all industry segments)
o marketing, design, advertising, sales of most products
o teaching (in spite of your claim to the contrary)
o medicine (large chunks including specialist consultation and
     psychology).  Slick Willie included "virtual medicine" in his AHSA'93
     propaganda for God's sake. 
o gambling
o "management"

This is just with current technology, once the VR interface gets good 
enough, we can add prostitutes and surgeons to the list.

C >3) One of the persistent problems in solving unemployment problems in
C >   both the US and Europe is that folks JUST WON'T MOVE.

Let's assume that no American moves.  What about all the people who are 
already offshore or in countries that permit easy offshore activities by 
their residents.  With a 30% to 50% tax savings, they can undercut the 
domestic competition who will have to either relocate or face declines.

C >Most Americans are hidebound, closed-minded people who couldn't 
C >even find the US on an unlabelled map, much less MOVE to another 
C >COUNTRY.

But not a problem for many of the rest of the world's population.  
Besides, as we grow a society on the nets, any residents of *that* society 
can move their bodies anywhere without leaving home.  And what are the 
political characteristics of net society?  Since coercion is difficult, 
persuasion (whether reasoned or ranting) is the primary technique.  It is 
a free society.  As long as it remains free (and try to imagine the 
technical difficulties involved in bringing it to heel), many people will 
be spending a lot of their time in a free society (even the channel 
surfers downloading their favourite vids).  They won't like having to come 
back to earth to deal with the DMV.

C >4) The inability of most of our fellow citizens to process text and
C >   numbers is staggering; it's not clear by any means that they're 
C >   ready for jobs in their same CITY where they live, if it involves
C >   any significant reading or writing skills. How are these people 

Their "point and click" muscles are well-developed.  Once the VR interface 
improves...  But seriously, they don't have to do anything to benefit from 
the technology-driven social revolution we're part of.  They benefit from 
markets or electronics whether they know anything or not.  Besides, they 
play one of the most important roles in the digital revolution -- as 
*customers*.

C >Remember, they're still citizens of an alleged democracy and thus have
C >their collective finger on one of the largest coercive apparati in the
C >world.

With no place to apply the force.  A "target lean" environment not because 
there are so few targets but because they are mixed in with so much other 
activity.  The power of the nation state was based on superior 
organization and its control of armed muscle, transportation, and 
communications.  Aside from other states, its only opponents were poorly 
organized peasants or townies "bound to the soil."  

States no longer control communications or transportation and their 
opposition is rich and mobile.  Their hierarchical organization is 
expensive, slow, and has few returns to scale in an era where I can pick 
up the phone and rent a 747 within an hour.  It can't cope with very 
nimble markets that will continue to accumulate a higher and higher 
proportion of the world's wealth.

The organized muscle deployed by states is of limited value with few open 
targets to fight.  It just costs money. 

C >5) If folks don't move, but try to get cute with where their income
C >is coming from, they will almost certainly be persecuted by the IRS,
C >independent of current law, if their numbers become significant. 

Then why haven't they done so yet with tax compliance at an all-time low 
according to official IRS studies.  10 million non-filers, 10 million 
fraudulent filers, 52% unreported income by small businesses, 61% 
non-filers among US expatriates.  

C >It wouldn't take too many "examples" to force whatever tax regime the 
C >IRS felt was necessary. 

So governments are all powerful.  They can't fail.  The May Day parade in 
Moscow will be great next year.  Tax evasion is impossible.  You can't 
win, you can't break even, you can't get out of the game.  Drugs have been 
banished from the cities; crime has disappeared; all government school 
pupils are literate, numerate, and well-groomed.

I realize that it's sometimes hard to see major institutional change while 
it is underway.  Governments face very grave institutional challenges.  
Revenue losses off the top will hurt as different factions fight for the 
remaining dough.  Don't think of virtual expatriation as a conscious 
conversion to a philosophy of self-government, a political movement, or a 
"business plan" -- think of it as changing channels. 


Duncan Frissell

And I just wanted to thank everyone for helping me write my talk for the 
First European Conference on Computers, Freedom, and Privacy (or whatever 
the order is) -- November 20th in London.
--- WinQwk 2.0b#1165