Re: e$: The Demographic "Transaction" (was Re: Schelling Points...)

[Arun Mehta <amehta@giasdl01.vsnl.net.in>]

At 15:09 28/07/96 -0400, Robert Hettinga wrote:

>
>He said there are many hypotheses about what causes this decline in
>fertility, including the commonly held one that people make babies as a
>form old age pension income :-)

That's true: when the state does not provide old-age pension,
that's the only alternative, and surely not a bad one. 

>He also said that the obvious things like public health and education were
>good ways to increase life expectancy, but that the very best way to cause
>this "demographic transition" was a dramatic increase in personal income.

As I see it, having more children makes sound economic sense when
you have child labor. You feed the child for 4-5 years, after
which it contributes financially to the family for the rest of
its short life. More stringent enforcement of anti child-labor
legislation would help. Increase in life expectancy is also good,
because then you need fewer children as insurance.

The spread of the Internet, and the ability to post anonymously
should help in exposing instances of violation of child-labor
laws, and increasing outrage. Hopefully, it will also make it
easier to spread literacy, which is arguably the best way to keep
population down.

I'd really like to know who this "he" is whom Robert is citing.

Arun Mehta Phone +91-11-6841172, 6849103 amehta@cpsr.org
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