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Re: unSAFE won't pass?
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At 06:22 PM 9/14/97 +0000, Vin McLellan wrote:
>Will Rodger <[email protected]> declared:
>>It may make for good copy, but I think it's just fantasy to think
>>administration or their opponents, for that matter, will get what
>>they want this year. Let them swarm. Who cares.
>>At earliest, August of 1998 before anything passes - and even that
> Could you please explain the logic, numbers, and procedural
>limitations of congressional action that lead you to this
But let me throw in a simple caveat: politics is about people - _all_
predictions of what they will do are subjective.
> Why not now?
With one month to go, there are a handful of things taking up time in
Congress. The budget is the by far the largest one. Unless a bill is
truly close to passing or the leadership has already evinced a desire
to move on a bill - and they haven't - it's unlikely it will pass
with so little time left. Also, there's no bill in the Senate that
goes as far as what's moving in the House; even Dorothy Denning says
mandatory KR gives here the heebie-jeebies under current technology.
Simply put: crypto is an issue of truly enormous import. Congress
will figure that out quickly once everyone has heard both sides of
> Why not between now and August '98?
That's my general estimate of the time needed for a subject that is
simply too complex for quick action. Look at telecom reform: it took
a decade to do.
> Why the deadline/target-date of August '98?
August recess. Getting something done far in advance of it just seems
unlikely, but if it were close, the leadership might want to get rid
of the issue before recessing. And don't forget that is an election
year. No way do you want to go home and campaign with that issue
still hanging fire. For that matter, a lot of people blamed crypto's
slow progress on the whole of '96. If it isn't settled by August, I
think you're definitely into 1999. Now, again, there's no scientific
proof that Congress couldn't move before then. This is just my own
estimate of the importance of this issue.
Declan gets a fifth of whatever he fancies if this thing is settled
before August 1998.
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