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Re: unSAFE won't pass?



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At 06:22 PM 9/14/97 +0000, Vin McLellan wrote:
>
>Will Rodger <[email protected]> declared:
>
>>It may make for good copy, but I think it's just fantasy to think 
the
>>administration or their opponents, for that matter, will get what
>>they want this year. Let them swarm. Who cares.
>>
>>At earliest, August of 1998 before anything passes - and even that 
is
>>highly optimistic.
>
>Will:
>
>	Could you please explain the logic, numbers, and procedural
>limitations of congressional action that lead you to this 
conclusion?

Sure. 

But let me throw in a simple caveat: politics is about people - _all_ 
predictions of what they will do are subjective.

>	Why not now?

With one month to go, there are a handful of things taking up time in 
Congress. The budget is the by far the largest one. Unless a bill is 
truly close to passing or the leadership has already evinced a desire 
to move on a bill - and they haven't - it's unlikely it will pass 
with so little time left.  Also, there's no bill in the Senate that 
goes as far as what's moving in the House; even Dorothy Denning says 
mandatory KR gives here the heebie-jeebies under current technology. 

Simply put: crypto is an issue of truly enormous import. Congress 
will figure that out quickly once everyone has heard both sides of 
the issue.

>	Why not between now and August '98?

That's my general estimate of the time needed for a subject that is 
simply too complex for quick action. Look at telecom reform: it took 
a decade to do. 

>	Why the deadline/target-date of August '98?

August recess. Getting something done far in advance of it just seems 
unlikely, but if it were close, the leadership might want to get rid 
of the issue before recessing. And don't forget that is an election 
year. No way do you want to go home and campaign with that issue 
still hanging fire. For that matter, a lot of people blamed crypto's 
slow progress on the whole of  '96. If it isn't settled by August, I 
think you're definitely into 1999. Now, again, there's no scientific 
proof that Congress couldn't move before then. This is just my own 
estimate of the importance of this issue.

Declan gets a fifth of whatever he fancies if this thing is settled 
before August 1998.

Cheers.


Will

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